The market has reached a tipping point since I was away for the past 2 weeks. No more fuel for the market to throttle ahead. Furthermore, there are strings of heavyweight 2Q financial result coming out this week; for instance, Goldman Sachs & Intel at Tuesday, JP Morgan at Thursday, Citi Group, Bank of America & General Electric. In this case, most of the investors would like to sit at the sideline now and chewing on the upcoming result to find out how far the recovering has progress on.
Actually, there are some clues on the market downside trend. If you watch closely at US 10 years Treasury yield, it has dropped significantly over 60bp (Basis Point) for the past month, since it reach the highest point of 3.936% at June this year. Bond price are reverse with the yield. If the bond price is up, the yield is dropping. In this case, 10 yr US treasury yield is dropping meanings that investor are scoping up the bond; the theoretical safe heaven for investor.
JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon is voicing out his concern on the credit card losses and the continue delinquency of mortgage. Therefore, I suspect the financial company won’t be doing well for the past 3 months. Obviously, the credit market is back to normal and the liquidity is back as well, but the main concern is the confidence of all.
In this 14th of July, we shall see how the June Retail sales fare. My opinion is the sales will be either down or comparison with previous quarter. As I say previously, confidence play a huge role in determine the recovery process. The unemployment rate of June has hit 9.5%. There will be no surprise if the unemployment rate keeps going up. Overall, the so-called Green Shot has not exist, as far as I concerned.
Actually, there are some clues on the market downside trend. If you watch closely at US 10 years Treasury yield, it has dropped significantly over 60bp (Basis Point) for the past month, since it reach the highest point of 3.936% at June this year. Bond price are reverse with the yield. If the bond price is up, the yield is dropping. In this case, 10 yr US treasury yield is dropping meanings that investor are scoping up the bond; the theoretical safe heaven for investor.
JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon is voicing out his concern on the credit card losses and the continue delinquency of mortgage. Therefore, I suspect the financial company won’t be doing well for the past 3 months. Obviously, the credit market is back to normal and the liquidity is back as well, but the main concern is the confidence of all.
In this 14th of July, we shall see how the June Retail sales fare. My opinion is the sales will be either down or comparison with previous quarter. As I say previously, confidence play a huge role in determine the recovery process. The unemployment rate of June has hit 9.5%. There will be no surprise if the unemployment rate keeps going up. Overall, the so-called Green Shot has not exist, as far as I concerned.
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3 comments:
difficult to say whether the green shoots is there or not. but one thing for sure is that we should hold on to our long term healthy portfolio, that's the way to go
Yupe. I agree with you...
Green Shoots? I am not convinced.
Anyway, i think we did see the bottom at end of last year.
Credit market has back to full function, but there is still a significant risk ahead.
Interesting stock chart.
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